Just 12 months ago Newcastle were on the verge of the unthinkable.
Eddie Howe joined the Magpies in November 2021, when the club were winless and in the relegation zone. Nobody would have suspected 18 months on, the Magpies flying into the top four and Champions League football . It was an achievement realised much quicker than any supporter expected even with the lavish additions of Bruno Guimaraes, Alexander Isak and Sven Botman.
That effort saw expectations difficult to manage and tough to recognise, and understanding what would be a success has proved problematic for Howe and co. For much of this season there has been speculation of what situation might put Newcastle's head coach under pressure.
The North East side experienced grand nights but ultimately disappointment in the Champions League. Their season threatened to grind to a halt through injury as new additions Harvey Barnes and Tino Livramento were stricken in addition to old favourites, while Sandro Tonali saw his season ended through a ban when it had barely started.
With four games remaining however, Newcastle are in contention for a place in Europe once again. While the club sit in seventh position in the Premier League, the Toon Army have the quest for sixth place in their own hands, but Manchester United stand in their way.
The Red Devils sit one point ahead, but still must welcome Newcastle to Old Trafford in what could prove decisive in the race for sixth. Erik ten Hag's team can still find success in the FA Cup, but should they fail against Manchester City it will be this position that is awarded the Premier League's second space in the Europa League.
In many ways, the Reds have followed a similar trajectory to Newcastle this term, albeit reinforced with unwanted records and greater discontent. Even with the enthusiasm of Sir Jim Ratcliffe's investment, a time for judgement has arrived on the club's squad and management. An overhaul is imminent.
Howe's side were competitive in a Champions League group that was home to two of this season's semi-finalists. A victory over PSG was not enough to see them progress in European action however.
Despite only garnering one point less in their bid to escape the group stage, Man United were judged to have whimpered out of the competition. They were a firm second-favourite to progress behind Bayern Munich.
Cup competitions offered hope to salvage success, and while United still have a chance in the FA Cup later this month, it was Newcastle that dispatched them in the Carabao Cup. The Geordies earned a modicum of revenge in a 3-0 win at Old Trafford, after the Ten Hag's team tasted success in the 2023 final.
On that day it felt the Manchester club remained a level above Newcastle, they were more ready for the moment. This season has not told the same story.
Both teams chose to rest and then utilise key players from the bench - Newcastle arguably more, in their fourth-round meeting. The 1-0 scoreline was narrower in the Premier League but the performance undoubtedly more dominant.
Anthony Gordon's goal was the end of result where Newcastle outworked and outshone their opponents. Now, should both side's deliver in their other matches, it remains to be seen whether they can repeat that when the pressure is truly on.
Newcastle have matches away to Burnley and at home to Brighton to navigate. United travel to Selhurst Park to face Crystal Palace before welcoming Arsenal. The duo's meeting could prove decisive.
The Magpies' St James' Park record has maintained its quality. Newcastle have the fourth best home form in the league, Manchester United sit seventh. However, the ability of the side away from home has proved more problematic with Newcastle holding the 15th worst record.
At Old Trafford they will be forced to validate themselves. Qualification for Europe's secondary competition would offer a hint of the club establishing its pedigree, and a more accurate layout of the timeframe they should be working towards.
Europa League football may dissaude the likes of Bruno Guimaraes and Alexander Isak from looking to depart the club too quickly, to drive Newcastle to the next step. Howe's position, presumably, would be secure. One step back to take two steps forwards perhaps.
Ten Hag can disrupt that via FA Cup glory or Premier League performance. The former would be deemed a success given the opposition but his position already appears unsustainable.
An end of season nightmare and more slip ups may only serve to dampen his reputation rather than cost him his job. That may already be too difficult to save.
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